Ntorya Value Scenarios: What Gas Could Mean for Aminex

Why Ntorya Matters to Aminex

16th June 2026

Aminex’s investment case is built around its 25% carried interest in the Ruvuma PSA, which contains the Ntorya gas discovery in southern Tanzania.

Ntorya is not simply an exploration idea. It is a discovered onshore gas field, operated by ARA Petroleum Tanzania, with a route toward domestic gas production through the planned connection to the Madimba gas processing system.

For investors, the question is not only whether Ntorya contains gas. That has already been established. The more important question is what that gas could mean commercially once production, cost recovery and Tanzanian PSA terms are taken into account.

This page sets out illustrative value scenarios. It is not a forecast, and it should not be read as company guidance.

The Headline Gross Value

Aminex’s share of currently recoverable Ntorya gas has previously been discussed by investors at around 0.4 Tcf.

For simple illustration, 0.4 Tcf is equivalent to around 400 million Mcf of gas.

Using two broad gas-price assumptions:

At $4.00 per Mcf, gross lifetime sales would be around $1.6 billion.

At $6.10 per Mcf, gross lifetime sales would be around $2.44 billion.

With approximately 4.475 billion Aminex shares in issue, those gross figures illustrate why investors pay close attention to Ntorya. Before PSA effects, cost recovery, timing, taxation, exchange rates and development risk, the headline gross value is large relative to Aminex’s current market capitalisation.

On a simple gross basis, those values are broadly equivalent to:

approximately 28p per share at $4.00 per Mcf;

approximately 43p per share at $6.10 per Mcf.

These figures are not target prices. They are gross revenue illustrations. They do not represent cash received by Aminex.

Their purpose is to show scale.

Why Gross Value Is Not the Same as Shareholder Value

The gross value of gas in the ground is only the starting point.

Aminex does not receive all gross gas revenue. Production from Ntorya sits inside a Tanzanian Production Sharing Agreement. Under a PSA, revenue is normally divided between cost recovery and profit gas, with the government and contractor group sharing economic benefit according to the relevant terms.

This means the proper investor question is not:

“How much is all the gas worth?”

It is:

“How much value could flow to Aminex after PSA terms, cost recovery, operating costs, timing and commercial arrangements?”

That is why simple gross-value calculations should always be treated carefully.

They show the size of the prize, but not the final net result.

PSA Economics and Cost Recovery

A common misunderstanding is that capital expenditure and operating expenditure simply reduce Aminex’s share of value.

Under PSA structures, that is not usually how the economics work.

Costs are normally recovered from a defined portion of production revenue before the remaining profit gas is shared. In Tanzania, cost recovery has historically been understood by investors as being capped at up to 50% of gross annual revenues, with unrecovered costs carried forward until recovered.

This matters because development costs are not simply lost. They are normally recovered over time through production.

For example, if a project incurred $250 million of recoverable costs and annual gross revenue was $200 million, then up to $100 million could potentially be recovered in the first year under a 50% cost-recovery ceiling. The remaining unrecovered balance would roll forward into later years until cleared.

Operating costs are also normally recoverable.

That means early cash flow can be heavily influenced by the cost-recovery mechanism, not just by the headline profit-gas split.

Aminex’s Carry Is a Key Part of the Story

Aminex’s position is unusual because its 25% interest in Ruvuma is carried through a significant part of the development programme.

Following the farm-out to ARA Petroleum Tanzania, Aminex retained a 25% interest and received a carry of up to $35 million of its share of costs, equivalent to the first $140 million of gross project expenditure.

That carry has previously been described by the company as expected to take Aminex through to the commencement of commercial gas production from Ntorya at zero cost to Aminex.

For a small company, that is important.

It means Aminex has exposure to development progress without having to fund the same early capital burden that would normally apply to a junior partner in a gas project.

The carry does not remove all risk. It does not guarantee production. It does not guarantee timing. But it materially changes the funding profile for Aminex shareholders.

A More Realistic Value Range

Once PSA effects, cost recovery, timing and project execution are considered, the realistic value to Aminex is much lower than the gross revenue figures.

That does not mean the economics become unattractive.

Even using conservative assumptions, the currently recoverable Ntorya gas could still imply several pence per share of value to Aminex, depending on final gas pricing, production profile, cost recovery, PSA terms, condensate contribution and timing.

That is the key point.

The investment case does not require investors to believe in extreme basin-wide numbers before any value exists. The discovered Ntorya gas alone may already justify serious attention if the project moves into production.

The wider upside sits on top.

Condensate and Additional Value

Ntorya has long been discussed as a gas-condensate discovery.

Condensate can add value because it is sold separately from dry gas and may attract a different pricing basis. The actual uplift depends on volumes, recovery, processing, sales terms and production profile.

For illustrative purposes, investors have often discussed condensate as a possible additional value stream rather than the core case.

That is the right way to treat it.

The central investment case remains gas monetisation. Condensate may provide upside, but it should not be used to support aggressive assumptions until clearer production data and commercial terms are available.

The Full-Field Prize

The current discovered and recoverable gas case is only one part of the wider Ruvuma story.

The larger prize lies in full-field development and further appraisal. Ntorya sits within a much larger onshore gas system, and previous investor discussion has pointed to materially greater potential across the wider basin.

If further drilling proves up additional commercial volumes, Aminex’s 25% interest could become more valuable than the current discovered-case numbers suggest.

This is where Chikumbi-1 becomes important.

CH-1 is expected to test deeper and broader potential in the Ntorya area. A successful result could change the scale of the development, influence future production planning and support a larger long-term gas resource base.

That is why the next drilling phase matters so much.

Ntorya-2 is expected to be the early production well, but CH-1 could help determine the scale of what follows.

Why This Matters for Investors

Aminex remains a high-risk small-cap energy investment.

There are still material risks around timing, execution, drilling, infrastructure, government process, commercial terms, funding choices and market sentiment.

However, the value case is becoming easier to frame.

Aminex has:

a 25% carried interest in the Ruvuma PSA;

exposure to a discovered onshore gas field;

a Tanzanian domestic gas market with growing demand;

a planned pipeline route to Madimba;

potential early production from Ntorya-2;

a major appraisal and exploration milestone in CH-1;

and possible additional value from condensate and future full-field development.

That combination explains why long-term shareholders continue to focus on Ntorya.

The share price may move on news, sentiment and timing. But the underlying question is deeper: how much cash can Ntorya ultimately generate once gas begins flowing into Tanzania’s domestic energy system?

Investor Takeaway

The gross value of Ntorya gas is large, but gross value is not shareholder value.

The proper investment case sits somewhere between the two extremes.

On one side, simple gross revenue numbers can overstate the near-term value because they ignore PSA terms, cost recovery, timing and risk.

On the other side, the market may undervalue Aminex if it fails to recognise the benefit of the carry, the existing gas discovery, the pipeline route, the domestic demand backdrop and the possibility of further resource growth.

That is why Ntorya remains important.

Even on conservative assumptions, the discovered gas case may offer material upside if commercial production is achieved. If further drilling confirms a larger development, the long-term value case could expand significantly.

For Aminex investors, the central point is clear:

Ntorya is not only about gas in the ground. It is about whether that gas can become cash flow.

That is the milestone the market will ultimately have to price.

Contributing Author: Andrew Eldridge

Source Notes: Aminex’s Ruvuma PSA page confirms the retained 25% interest and $35m net carry, equivalent to the first $140m gross project expenditure; the January 2024 Ruvuma Gas Sales Agreement announcement states the carry was expected to take Aminex through to commercial gas production at zero cost to the company; Aminex’s June 2026 total voting rights announcement gives 4,475,001,044 shares in issue.

Aminex PLC Ruvuma PSA

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