NT3: The Well That Could Redefine Aminex

Why the next Ntorya development well could prove far more significant than its immediate contribution to gas production.

9th November 2026

After a period of real frustration, I believe we're finally approaching the moment that could fundamentally transform Aminex. NT3 is not simply another production well. It will be the most important well drilled at Ntorya to date.

For years, Aminex has been defined by delays rather than geology. But with Rig 8000 now contracted, preparations visibly advancing via satellite and drilling approaching, attention should finally return to the extraordinary potential beneath Ntorya.

Why NT3 Is So Significant

NT1 and NT2 have already demonstrated that Ntorya contains productive gas-bearing reservoirs, testing at approximately 20 and 17 MMscf/d respectively. NT-2 encountered around 31 metres of net gas pay, despite being situated towards the edge of the interpreted channel system.

Now consider NT3...

The latest seismic interpretation positions NT3 towards the centre of that channel, where the interpreted gross reservoir section could exceed 200 metres, compared with just 51 metres at NT2. That is potentially four times the gross reservoir thickness.

But the real significance is not simply the possibility of a thicker gas-bearing interval. It is what such a result could prove about the entire Ntorya accumulation.

If NT3 confirms substantial net gas pay, good reservoir quality and possibly multiple productive intervals, it could validate the seismic interpretation of a much thicker central-channel reservoir. That would strengthen confidence that the productive system extends beyond the relatively limited sections encountered by the existing wells. It could also provide critical evidence supporting additional drilling locations, higher recoverable volumes and the feasibility of a much larger development.

In other words, NT3 could help transform Ntorya from a proven gas discovery with substantial interpreted potential into a considerably better-understood, commercially scalable gas field. That distinction is fundamental.

A single well can add production. A successful well in the right geological location can change expectations for an entire reservoir system. And NT3 is targeting precisely the location where the current geological model suggests the reservoir could be at its most attractive.

Importantly, gross thickness does not equal net pay, and the well must confirm reservoir quality, gas saturation and commercial productivity. But that is exactly why the results could be so consequential.

The Implications for Production

The development concept envisages production increasing from approximately 60 MMscf/d to 140 MMscf/d, with longer-term potential for 280 MMscf/d.

A successful NT3 would not automatically establish the recoverable reserves required for those production levels. However, strong reservoir results could materially improve confidence in the geological and commercial assumptions supporting future expansion.

This is why I consider NT3 a potential field-defining well, rather than simply another step in the development programme.

What Could It Mean for the Share Price?

At approximately 2p, Aminex is valued at around £90 million.

My central scenario following genuinely strong NT3 results, alongside convincing progress towards first gas, is 7–9p, with exceptional success potentially supporting 10–12p. At 8p, Aminex would be valued at approximately £362 million.

Why could the market contemplate such a re-rating? Because a successful NT3 could change several fundamental valuation inputs simultaneously.

First, confirmation of a substantial productive central-channel reservoir could improve confidence in recoverable gas volumes and future development wells. Second, successful drilling could reduce geological risk across parts of the wider development, potentially increasing the value attributed to future production. Third, first gas would begin to replace development uncertainty with evidence of commercial delivery. Fourth, a credible route towards 140 MMscf/d, and potentially 280 MMscf/d, could encourage investors to value Ntorya on longer-term production economics rather than the next operational milestone.

The potential re-rating is therefore not simply about market excitement. It is about a possible increase in expected future cash flows combined with a reduction in the risks applied to those cash flows. That is the fundamental mechanism behind my 7–9p scenario.

It is an illustrative bullish scenario, not a calculated fair value. Actual results, recoverable reserves, funding, gas pricing and fiscal terms will determine whether such valuations are justified.

The Moment We Have Been Waiting For

For years, shareholders have discussed the theoretical scale of Ntorya. NT3 offers an opportunity to put a particularly important part of that geological interpretation to the test.

We have two successful historical wells. We have a contracted drilling rig. We have visible site preparations. And we have a development programme intended to bring this substantial gas resource into commercial production.

There are still risks, and the drilling results must deliver. But I believe the coming months could fundamentally change how investors assess Aminex.

NT3 is not just about how much gas one well might produce. It is about what that well could establish regarding the scale, quality and future commercial value of the entire Ntorya field.

That is why its significance should not be underestimated. After years of waiting, the drill bit may finally provide the answers that matter most.

Contributor Attribution:

This article was originally published in two parts on the London South East Aminex discussion board under the title NT3: The Well That Could Redefine Aminex. Reproduced with the contributor's permission. (Prospero26)

The analysis, opinions and illustrative share-price scenarios are those of the original contributor and do not constitute investment advice or independently assessed valuations by AminexInvestors.com.

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