Recent satellite imagery indicates that a significant new gas-fired power project — widely understood to be Kinyerezi III (c.1,000 MW) — has been under construction in Tanzania since approximately February–March 2025.
At the time of writing:
There has been limited formal public communication
Coverage in international media appears minimal or absent
Construction progress suggests the project is well underway
If confirmed, this represents one of the most important near-term demand drivers for Tanzania’s domestic gas market.
Current installed gas-fired generation capacity in Tanzania is approximately 1,009 MW, comprising:
Grid-connected:
Kinyerezi I – 335 MW
Kinyerezi II – 248 MW
Ubungo II – 129 MW
Ubungo I – 102 MW
Ubungo III – 72.5 MW
Tegeta – 45 MW
Subtotal: 931.7 MW
Off-grid:
Mtwara II – 40 MW
Mtwara I – 30.4 MW
Somanga – 7.5 MW
Subtotal: 77.9 MW
Total: ~1,009 MW
A ~1,000 MW Kinyerezi III facility would effectively double existing gas-fired generation capacity.
A modern combined-cycle plant of this scale would typically require in the region of:
~150–170 MMscf/d of gas at full load
This is a material figure when considered against:
Current domestic demand levels
Forecast supply from projects such as Ntorya
Typical build timelines for combined-cycle plants:
24–36 months from construction start
If construction began in early 2025, this implies:
Potential commissioning window: 2027–2028
This aligns closely with the expected ramp-up phase of several upstream developments.
The investment case for Aminex plc is closely tied to timing and scale of gas demand growth in Tanzania.
Key implications:
This project represents visible, physical demand creation, not just policy or agreements
A single plant could account for over half of a 280 MMscf/d production plateau scenario
It strengthens the case for earlier and higher utilisation of domestic gas resources
Broker research, including that from Shard Capital, has previously:
Modelled demand growth conservatively
Assumed slower ramp-up timelines (plateau 2033–2036)
Included Kinyerezi III as a demand driver, but with:
Lower capacity assumptions (~300 MW)
Uncertainty over project timing
If current observations are accurate:
The scale (1,000 MW vs 300 MW) materially alters demand projections
The construction status suggests earlier demand realisation
This could impact discounted cash flow assumptions and valuation ranges
Previous projections referenced in market research indicate:
Potential gas shortfall of ~270 MMscf/d by ~2030
Demand for ~280 MMscf/d of additional supply within this decade
A project of this scale provides tangible evidence supporting those projections.
The conclusions above are based on:
Satellite imagery (May 2025 onward)
Visible site preparation and construction activity
Location and configuration consistent with Kinyerezi expansion phases
This is not a conceptual project or policy discussion.
It appears to be a major, physical demand source already under construction, with the potential to:
Double Tanzania’s gas-fired power capacity
Accelerate domestic gas demand
Strengthen the case for upstream development timelines
Contributing Author: Ufufuo