Could Ntorya Reach Plateau Production Faster Than Current Valuations Assume

A Growing Disconnect

One of the more interesting questions facing Aminex investors today is whether Tanzania's ambitions and some market valuations are still moving in the same direction.

On one side sits the Tanzanian Government. Through the recently published Fourth Five-Year Development Plan (FYDP IV), the country has laid out an ambitious vision for gas-led industrialisation. By 2031, Tanzania is targeting 1,000 MMscf/d of onshore gas production and 800 MMscf/d of domestic gas utilisation. At the same time, it plans to expand gas infrastructure, grow industrial capacity, increase power generation and accelerate strategic projects such as Mtwara LNG.

On the other side sit valuation models that continue to assume a relatively slow production ramp for Ntorya.

The question is not who is right.

The question is whether both sets of assumptions can comfortably coexist.

What Aminex Has Actually Said

Aminex's own guidance has been remarkably consistent.

The company's Field Development Plan anticipates a phased development of Ntorya, initially reaching 140 MMscf/d before ultimately increasing to 280 MMscf/d within five years of first gas.

Assuming first gas arrives around September 2026, that would imply plateau production being reached around 2031.

That date is important because it now aligns almost perfectly with the timelines set out within FYDP IV.

In other words, the period during which Aminex expects Ntorya to be reaching full production is the very same period during which Tanzania expects domestic gas consumption to rise towards 800 MMscf/d.

That alignment may not be a coincidence.

Tanzania's Demand Story Has Changed

Only a few years ago, a cautious view of Tanzanian gas demand was understandable. Infrastructure was still developing, industrial demand remained relatively modest and much of the growth story existed more on paper than on the ground.

Today, however, the picture looks very different.

Industrial demand has been growing rapidly. Orca Energy recently reported a 47% increase in industrial gas demand during the fourth quarter of 2024 and stated that demand continues to exceed available supply from Songo Songo. At the same time, the Bank of Tanzania has highlighted a growing shift in gas consumption towards industry and transport.

This is important because it suggests Tanzania is no longer trying to create future demand. Demand is already emerging.

As explored in our previous article, Why Tanzania's Gas Demand Growth May Be Accelerating Far Faster Than Analysts Expected, power generation is no longer the only driver. Industrial parks, fertiliser projects, mining developments, transport infrastructure and regional energy initiatives are all beginning to compete for gas supply.

The Government Is Planning For Scale

The strongest evidence may come from the Government's own targets.

FYDP IV does not describe a country expecting modest increases in gas consumption. It describes a country planning for transformational growth.

Alongside the target of 800 MMscf/d domestic gas utilisation, Tanzania is also seeking to expand generation capacity to more than 15,000 MW by 2031. Additional pipeline infrastructure, storage facilities, CNG distribution systems and industrial gas networks are planned as part of the wider expansion programme.

Perhaps most importantly, these targets sit within an official development framework that is intended to guide state investment and infrastructure planning over the next five years.

Whether every target is achieved in full is almost irrelevant.

What matters is the direction of travel.

And that direction points towards substantially higher gas demand.

Mtwara LNG Could Change The Equation Again

The demand story becomes even more interesting when Mtwara LNG enters the discussion.

FYDP IV specifically calls for negotiations on the project to be fast-tracked by June 2027. The project itself has ambitions far beyond a small domestic LNG facility. Initial plans involve LNG production of between 1.5 and 3 MTPA, with longer-term scalability towards 9 MTPA alongside associated power generation and regional distribution infrastructure.

What makes this particularly relevant to Aminex shareholders is that Ntorya has been identified as one of the project's primary potential gas supply sources.

If Mtwara LNG progresses, it creates another significant route to market for future gas production. It also provides a potential explanation for why Tanzania is targeting such substantial increases in both gas production and infrastructure investment over the coming years.