1. BREAKING: Aminex issues a fresh RNS after yesterday’s government meeting
Aminex confirmed this morning that it is participating in ongoing discussions in Tanzania involving the Ministry of Energy, TPDC, PURA and ARA Petroleum Tanzania. It specifically welcomed the authorities’ continued engagement and thanked Permanent Secretary Dr James Mataragio for convening the meeting.
Investor implication: this is the clearest indication since the 21 August Notice of Dispute that the Tanzanian government is now actively bringing all sides together to find a practical way forward.
2. NEW: Tanzania has ordered the parties to target first gas by December 2026
At yesterday’s meeting, Dr Mataragio directed the Ntorya participants to accelerate implementation so that gas production begins by December 2026. The meeting included APT, Aminex subsidiary Ndovu, PURA, TPDC and the Ministry.
Investor implication: the previous September objective has effectively been replaced by a government-backed December target. That is a delay, but critically it is still a 2026 first-gas target, not an indefinite postponement.
3. VERY SIGNIFICANT: ARA’s CEO has publicly committed to the December target
ARA Petroleum CEO Dr Salman Al Shidi reportedly pledged that ARA would continue carrying out its responsibilities “with speed” and complete the activities necessary to achieve Ntorya gas production by December.
Investor implication: this is perhaps the most important development. ARA is no longer merely being discussed by the other parties. Its chief executive has publicly committed, in a government-convened meeting, to delivering first gas in 2026.
4. INFERENCE: The dispute increasingly looks capable of a negotiated operational solution
Aminex has not withdrawn its Notice of Dispute and today’s RNS does not say the approved 2026 work programme has been reinstated or that agreement has been reached on Chikumbi-1. The formal 90-day dispute process therefore remains in place.
However, a meeting involving every principal party, followed immediately by a government first-gas directive, an ARA commitment to deliver it and an Aminex RNS welcoming the process, is materially different from the position only six days ago.
Investor implication: the evidence now points more strongly toward government-mediated compromise rather than immediate arbitration, although that remains inference until Aminex announces an agreed programme.
5. CH-1 remains the unanswered question
Yesterday’s Tanzanian report focuses on achieving first gas by December but does not specify whether Chikumbi-1 must be drilled beforehand. Aminex’s 21 August Notice remains explicit that CH-1 is an obligation well and that APT’s proposed alternatives did not provide the same firm drilling commitment.
Investor implication: first gas and CH-1 may now become separate negotiating issues. A compromise could conceivably preserve NT-2 first gas in 2026 while agreeing a firm timetable for CH-1, but that is inference and requires confirmation.
Contributing Author: Andrew Eldridge