A Timeline That Originally Looked Much Shorter

When Kasa-1X began drilling in June, Aminex investors had good reason to watch the calendar closely.

Tanzanian reporting on 6 June confirmed that the Mnazi Bay campaign consisted of two production wells, MB-5 and MS-2, followed by the Kasa-1X exploration well. By 5 June, the first two wells had been completed and Kasa-1X was under way.

Earlier analysis on AminexInvestors.com, based on information available at the time, discussed an expected drilling duration of approximately 55 days. That suggested completion during the summer and raised the possibility of subsequent rig availability for Ntorya.

Maurel & Prom's own later reporting described Kasa-1X as having been spudded in mid-June. Significantly, when the company published its half-year results on 6 August, it still described the Kasa-1X exploration well as being drilled.

By that stage, it was already apparent that the final well in the Mnazi Bay campaign was taking considerably longer than the simpler summer timetable investors had initially been considering.

The Baker Hughes information now gives us a possible technical explanation for at least part of that extended schedule.

What Happened at Kasa-1X?

The technical description concerns the 12¼-inch section of the Kasa-1X extended-reach well.

During a wiper trip, significant losses and pack-offs were encountered while the drilling assembly was being pulled from the hole. The Baker Hughes specialist records that these events indicated possible formation instability and created uncertainty over hole enlargement, breakouts, wellbore integrity and the ability to recover the drilling operation safely and effectively.

A wiper trip is performed to check and condition the wellbore before further drilling or casing operations. The drill string is moved through an already drilled section of the hole, helping identify tight spots, remove cuttings and confirm that the bore remains sufficiently stable.

A pack-off occurs when material, often drilled cuttings or unstable formation, restricts the annular space around the drill string. This can interfere with circulation and movement of the drilling assembly. Significant fluid losses create a different problem, with drilling fluid disappearing into the surrounding formation rather than returning normally to the surface.

Encountering both during the same section can require additional circulation, reaming, wellbore conditioning and technical evaluation before the operator can safely proceed.

The Baker Hughes project specifically focused on finding a way to determine the extent of hole enlargement because conventional hole-size measurements were not available. Measurements acquired while drilling and reaming were instead analysed to assess the condition of the borehole and possible breakouts.

That gives the newly discovered information considerably more substance than a vague reference to "drilling difficulties". It describes a real technical problem and the work undertaken to understand it.

Why Extended-Reach Drilling Can Become Complicated

Kasa-1X is also a more technically demanding well than the first two wells in Maurel & Prom's 2026 campaign.

MB-5 and MS-2 were development wells intended to increase production from an established gas field. Kasa-1X is an exploration well and has been described as an extended-reach drilling operation.

In an extended-reach well, the drilling assembly travels a substantial horizontal distance away from the surface location. This increases the importance of hole cleaning, friction management, drilling-fluid performance and maintaining a stable borehole.

When part of that borehole begins enlarging or becoming unstable, the problem cannot simply be ignored. The operator must understand what is happening before casing or further drilling can safely continue.

That is why an issue encountered during one section can consume considerably more time than the original drilling schedule might have allowed.

The Contrast With the Earlier Mnazi Bay Wells

The contrast with MB-5 is useful.

Maurel & Prom reported that MB-5 was drilled in 41 days against an original plan of 47 days, and the well entered production at the end of March with approximately 40 MMscf/d of capacity.

MS-2 was then drilled and brought into production during the first half of the year. By August, M&P said MB-5 and MS-2 had tested at 47 MMscf/d and 50 MMscf/d respectively, raising the production potential of the existing Mnazi Bay wells to nearly 200 MMscf/d.

The first two wells therefore demonstrated that the wider campaign could proceed efficiently.

Kasa-1X appears to have been different.

The newly identified technical work relates specifically to June and July 2026, matching the period during which Kasa was being drilled. By early August, Maurel & Prom was still publicly reporting that drilling continued.

It is therefore reasonable to consider whether the wellbore difficulties described by Baker Hughes contributed to the longer Kasa timetable.

The Missing Piece in the Ntorya Rig Story?

The reason Kasa-1X has attracted such close attention from Aminex investors goes back to March, when TPDC Managing Director Mussa Makame said the rig working through the Mnazi Bay campaign would subsequently move to Ntorya.

At the time, the expected sequence appeared relatively straightforward: complete Kasa-1X, release the rig, mobilise it to Ntorya and begin the next drilling campaign.

What investors could not see was what was happening thousands of metres beneath the Kasa well pad.

The Baker Hughes information now provides a glimpse of that hidden operational picture. A well experiencing significant fluid losses, pack-offs and possible instability can require substantial additional technical work before drilling can safely continue or the rig can be released.

That makes the newly discovered information particularly relevant. It does not prove that the Kasa-1X problems were solely responsible for the longer Mnazi Bay timetable, but they provide a credible technical explanation for why the campaign may have taken longer than originally anticipated.

With Ntorya operations now scheduled to begin in October and NT-C drilling targeted for December, attention will increasingly turn from Kasa-1X itself to evidence of rig release and mobilisation towards Ntorya.

Ntorya's Programme Has Now Changed

The relevance today is slightly different from when Aminex investors first began watching Kasa.

Originally, the major drilling target at Ntorya was expected to be CH-1. The revised programme agreed following the Tanzanian Government meeting on 26 August has now brought NT-Central forward, with drilling scheduled for December and CH-1 following afterwards.

The same programme schedules the NT-1 workover for October, NT-2 testing for November and first gas from NT-1 and NT-2 in December.

That means rig availability remains highly relevant, but the first new well awaiting the drilling package is now NT-C rather than CH-1.

The change also compresses several important Ntorya operations into the final quarter of 2026. APT has confirmed that it has the necessary funds to carry out the revised programme, and all parties agreed that the work should proceed without unnecessary delay.

If the plan described by TPDC to move the Mnazi Bay rig to Ntorya remains current, completion and release of that rig would be an important practical step towards the December drilling programme. Aminex has yet to confirm publicly either the identity of the Ntorya rig or the award of the associated rig contract.