Kasa-1X Drilling Has Now Finished

The Kasa-1X update is particularly significant because completion of the Mnazi Bay drilling campaign has long been watched as a possible precursor to activity at Ntorya.

Maurel & Prom began its three-well Mnazi Bay programme with MB-5 in February. MB-5 was followed by the MS-2 development well and then by Kasa-1X, an extended-reach exploration well targeting a new area of the Mnazi Bay licence. M&P explicitly confirmed that sequence when announcing the successful MB-5 well in April.

According to TPDC's 21 September briefing, the first two wells were completed successfully and together have added approximately 65 MMscf/d of additional production capacity. The third well has now completed its drilling phase and TPDC says its results are being gathered and interpreted before they are formally announced.

That is an important distinction. The announcement does not yet tell us whether Kasa-1X has made a commercial discovery, nor does it say that all completion and demobilisation activity at the well site has finished. What it does tell us is that the actual drilling phase of the third and final well is over.

For Aminex shareholders who have spent much of the summer watching Kasa-1X, that is the milestone they had been waiting to see.

Why the Rig Matters to Ntorya

The connection between Kasa-1X and Ntorya comes from Tanzanian authorities rather than from Aminex or operator ARA Petroleum Tanzania.

Earlier this year, TPDC Managing Director Mussa Makame said that the drilling rig working through the Mnazi Bay programme would subsequently move to the Ruvuma area for the Ntorya programme. That statement is why progress at Kasa-1X has been followed so closely by Aminex investors.

Aminex and APT have not publicly confirmed that the Mnazi Bay rig has been contracted for Ntorya, nor has Aminex announced a final rig-contract award. The identity of the drilling unit that will undertake the Ntorya programme therefore remains to be formally confirmed.

Nevertheless, the timing is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.

Aminex's revised implementation programme, announced on 2 September following a meeting convened by Tanzania's Ministry of Energy, schedules the NT-1 workover for October, NT-2 testing for November, NT-Central drilling for December, and first gas from NT-1 and NT-2 during December. CH-1 is then intended to follow NT-C.

If the rig plan previously described by TPDC remains current, the completion of drilling at Kasa-1X is therefore an obvious operational milestone. The rig could not be mobilised towards Ntorya while it was still drilling Kasa. With that phase now finished, attention can move to completion activity, rig release and any visible signs of mobilisation.

The Missing Piece From the Summer Timeline

The longer duration of Kasa-1X had already become an interesting part of the Ntorya story.

Earlier technical information identified from a Baker Hughes specialist who worked on Kasa-1X described significant fluid losses, pack-offs and concerns over wellbore stability during the 12¼-inch section of the well. Those issues provided a credible technical explanation for why the final Mnazi Bay well may have taken considerably longer than investors had initially expected.

TPDC's latest announcement effectively closes the next part of that sequence. Whatever additional work was required during the drilling phase, the drill has now reached the point where the well's results are being evaluated.

The focus therefore changes. The important question is no longer simply when Kasa-1X drilling will finish. It becomes what happens to the rig next.

That answer still has to come from APT, Aminex or visible operational activity on the ground, but the timing of Ntorya's revised programme means investors should not have to wait indefinitely for clarification.

Tanzania Says It Needs More Gas

The other major message from Makame's briefing concerns the market awaiting new production.

Makame said there is now greater demand for natural gas than Tanzania's existing production capacity can satisfy. He said the situation represents both a challenge and a catalyst for TPDC to initiate and advance additional exploration projects across different areas and licence blocks.

That statement gives additional context to the urgency surrounding Ntorya.

TPDC says Tanzania's current natural gas production comes principally from Songo Songo and Mnazi Bay, with combined production averaging approximately 170 MMscf/d during the 2025/26 financial year. Around 85% of that gas was used in electricity generation, with the remainder supplying industry, institutions, households and the growing CNG transport market.

Ntorya's initial development is designed to add up to approximately 60 MMscf/d. Aminex's 2025 Annual Report describes the first phase as production from NT-1, NT-2 and the new development well, with the wider field then scaling towards 140 MMscf/d and eventually 280 MMscf/d.

An initial 60 MMscf/d would therefore be significant when compared with the roughly 170 MMscf/d Tanzania is currently producing from its established producing areas.

More importantly, that new supply would be arriving into a market that TPDC is now saying already needs additional gas.

Ntorya Enters a Market Looking for Supply

For years, one of the recurring investor questions around Ntorya has been how Tanzania would ultimately absorb the volumes contemplated by the field's development plan.

The latest TPDC comments change the emphasis of that question.

Tanzania is not waiting for Ntorya before finding uses for natural gas. It already has substantial gas-fired electricity generation, industrial consumption and a developing CNG market. TPDC's concern is increasingly how to secure enough supply to meet that demand while expanding the market further.

This helps explain why upstream and downstream projects are progressing simultaneously.

At Mnazi Bay, TPDC and Maurel & Prom are adding production capacity. At Ntorya, the Government has supported development of a new gas source. Madimba processing capacity is being prepared for expansion. New pipelines are being planned towards industrial areas. CNG infrastructure is expanding, and Mini-LNG is being pursued as a means of serving customers beyond the fixed pipeline network.

Those projects make more sense when viewed alongside Makame's statement that the existing supply base is already struggling to keep pace with demand.

Mnazi Bay Is Adding Supply Too

The results from the first two wells of the Mnazi Bay campaign reinforce the same point.

TPDC says the completed wells have added approximately 65 MMscf/d of production capacity to the field. It expects the overall three-well campaign to support Mnazi Bay production of at least 150 MMscf/d, subject to the outcome of Kasa-1X.

MB-5 itself demonstrated the scale of the opportunity. Maurel & Prom reported in April that the well had production capacity of approximately 40 MMscf/d, taking the field's production potential above 130 MMscf/d at that stage.

Tanzania is therefore not developing Ntorya because existing producing fields have been abandoned. It is investing in additional production at Mnazi Bay and progressing an entirely new producing area at Ntorya.

That is consistent with a market requiring more supply rather than one simply replacing declining production.

TPDC's Financial Results Show the Value of Domestic Gas

The same briefing also highlighted the economic contribution already being made by Tanzania's petroleum sector.

TPDC reported a profit of approximately TZS 72.98 billion for the 2025/26 financial year. It paid around TZS 50 billion in taxes, transferred approximately TZS 142 billion to the Government through gas profit sharing and royalties, and paid a dividend of around TZS 15 billion. TPDC said total payments and transfers to the Government during the year reached approximately TZS 207 billion.

Those numbers provide another reason for the Government's determination to increase domestic gas production.

Additional gas contributes to electricity generation and industrial development, but it can also create direct revenue through TPDC's interests, royalties, taxation and profit-sharing arrangements.

Ntorya therefore enters an established energy economy in which natural gas is already producing significant value for the Tanzanian state.

Ntorya's Scale Goes Well Beyond First Gas

The immediate focus remains the initial production targeted for December, but Aminex's current development plan is considerably larger.

The 2025 Annual Report sets out a phased programme beginning with production of up to 60 MMscf/d, followed by three additional development wells taking output towards the 140 MMscf/d capacity of the Ntorya-Madimba pipeline. Further drilling is then planned to raise production towards 280 MMscf/d, with additional wells and in-field compression intended to maintain that plateau for 20 years or more.

This gives Makame's comments on gas demand additional significance.

December first gas is not intended to represent Ntorya at full development. It is the beginning of a multi-stage programme designed to bring materially larger volumes into Tanzania's gas system as additional wells and infrastructure are developed.

The commercial importance of that growth depends upon demand developing alongside it. TPDC's latest message suggests Tanzania is already starting from a position where additional supply is required.